Refrigerated container rates in global trade rose more than 50 percent in the second quarter of the year , to the second quarter, matching the rise in dry cargo pricing, and are expected to rise further in the third quarter to outpace dry container rates, according to a new report by Drewry, a UK consultancy.

Drury warned that some refrigerated trade has begun to level off, with a small decline expected by 2023 as shippers resist unsustainable freight rate increases.

The Drury Global refrigerated Container Freight Index, a weighted average of freight rates on the top 15 refrigerated intensive trade routes, rose 50.4 per cent year on year in the second quarter and is expected to climb further in the third quarter, but at a slower pace. However, rates on East-west routes have risen only modestly over the past four quarters as capacity pressures have eased due to weak pork trade from Europe and North America to Asia.

The freezer supply chain is at risk

Drury predicts refrigerated container rates will weaken in 2023, but much less than dry box pricing, as refrigerated container rates continue to lag the broader trade.

Global seaborne refrigerated shipments recovered 2% to 137.4 million tons in 2021 from the pandemic in 2020, but slowed to 1.1% YoY in the first half of this year. Mr. Drury predicted that the deal would end the year with an annual gain of just 1%.

"The cold storage supply chain is at a precarious moment, with extremely high input costs for materials such as fertilizer, packaging and energy, just to name a few. Freight rates are still unsustainably high, and many Bcos, especially those transporting low-value products, are priced above market and therefore shipping less, "said Philip Gray, Drury's head of refrigerated transport research. "The next round of freight negotiations between carriers and shippers is expected to focus on this reality, leading to modest reductions in refrigerated freight levels by 2023."

Growth in seaborne refrigerated trade will accelerate

Despite the current uncertainty, Drury expects seaborne refrigerated trade growth to accelerate in the coming years, growing at an average annual rate of 3% through 2026. Mode shift will continue to be the key feature of forecast growth in the container transport segment at a faster 3.7% CAGR, as the specialist refrigerated vessel fleet continues to age and there are few units on order.

"While there are concerns about a slowdown in global trade, supply chain disruptions are expected to remain a feature of 2023," Gray added. "With BCO already understanding its costs, refrigerated trade is second only to the larger and dominant dry goods trade that drives carrier network priorities. This proves once again that shippers need more control over their logistics to ensure timely delivery and optimal product integrity."